In the first half of 2023, Guangzhou is anticipated to return to pre-epidemic conditions – Zhong Nanshan

The first wave of COVID-19 infections in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, South China, will likely peak between mid-early January and mid-February 2023, and conditions will return to pre-epidemic levels in the first half of 2023, according to China’s foremost respiratory disease expert, Zhong Nanshan.

The senior health official and his team judged during a Friday interview, during which he also emphasized the importance of preventing severe illness caused by the virus and strengthening the COVID-19 vaccination.

Zhong emphasized that although domestic vaccines are marginally less effective at preventing infection, they are safer and have fewer side effects than their foreign counterparts. Similarly, both are equally effective at preventing severe illness.

Booster shots typically take two weeks to become effective, preventing large-scale transmission during the Spring Festival travel rush when large numbers of people travel between regions of the country. Zhong added that there is an urgent need to increase vaccination rates nationwide.

Zhong noted that 99 percent of those infected with the Omicron virus recover entirely within seven to ten days. He added that an analysis of data from major cities in China revealed that the severity rate of the Omicron variant was less than 1 percent and the fatality rate was less than 0.1 percent, indicating that the pathogenicity of Omicron has been significantly diminished.

The renowned Chinese epidemiologist Li Lanjuan concurred with Zhong that there is no need for alarm regarding Omicron. Li and Zhong both believed that asymptomatic infection is not a disease and that silent carriers are not patients.

Zhong stated that the COVID-19 epidemic is not yet over, but he emphasized that the pathogenicity of the Omicron variant had been drastically diminished. “This is the trend of the coronavirus’s future evolution,” he said.

According to data released by Singapore, the case fatality rate of the Omicron variant during the epidemic period from January to November of this year was 0.45, which was significantly lower than the case fatality rate of the Delta variant from June 2021 to January 2022, which was 3.6.

Li Yimin, a member of Zhong Nanshan’s team and chief physician for the Department of Intensive Care Medicine at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, stated that in the current wave of cases in Guangzhou, the proportion of severe issues caused by the coronavirus is not significant. Pneumonia caused by Omicron infection is also extremely rare, primarily manifested by the worsening of the underlying disease.

Zhong stated that it is inappropriate to use fatality rates from other regions to predict hundreds of thousands of deaths on the Chinese mainland. “I do not think this will occur. The vaccination rate on the Chinese mainland has reached 68.86%, which is insufficient but can significantly reduce large-scale mortality, “he said.

Zhong also urged respiratory physicians and researchers to help optimize national policies for the nation to “prevent the epidemic, stabilize the economy, and ensure development.”

China has recently modified and improved its COVID-19 measures, allowing asymptomatic carriers, patients with mild symptoms, and those who meet specific requirements to be quarantined at home. Concern has arisen among the general populace regarding the possibility that the risk of infection is now greater than it was previously.

According to media reports, the average daily sales of COVID-19 antigen self-testing kits have increased by more than 400 times since November.

According to the National Health Commission, 2,338 confirmed cases and 8,477 asymptomatic infections were reported on the Chinese mainland on Saturday, with 39,391 confirmed cases still under medical observation and treatment nationwide.